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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/06 10:51

   Corn, Wheat, Soybean Futures All Lower at Midday

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday; soybeans are 10 to 12 
cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday; soybeans are 10 to 12 
cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is 
weaker with the Dow off 45 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 70 points higher. 
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude off .40 and 
natural gas flat. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold up $3.00.


   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower with softer spread action with early 
strength fading back to support during the day session with little fresh news 
overall and a soft overall commodity environment. Ethanol margins have support 
from natural gas while blender margins tighten again with the recent fade in 
unleaded values, but spring blends will boost margins in the coming weeks. Crop 
development will continue to be watched with drier weather short-term in 
Argentina, and early double-crop planting in Brazil to expand in coming days; 
but it has fallen off the ideal pace for now, adding support. The daily export 
wire showed life with 200,000 metric tons (mt) split between old and new crop 
to Mexico while Japan secured 118,000 mt. Weekly inspections were off a little 
at 480,205 mt. Basis has stabilized in the west with above-average action 
holding up overall. On the March chart, support is at the $6.74 20-day moving 
average, which we are testing at midday with the upper Bollinger Band at $6.93 
the next round up, which we have faded from last week with a fresh high for the 
move just below that still at $6.88 3/4.


   Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with rangebound action 
continuing short-term while product action and South American weather continue 
to provide direction, helping us to fade back toward support levels. Meal is 
$6.50 to $7.50 lower and oil is 35 to 45 points lower with crush margins still 
strong as meal fades back from the $500.00 area. Weekly export inspections were 
solid at 1.830 million metric tons (mmt) pushing us ahead of last year's pace. 
Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to pick up soon as harvest 
expands, but it remains slower than usual amid showers, while Argentina will be 
watched for further deterioration short-term. Basis remains mostly sideways 
near-term. March chart support is at the $15.14 20-day moving average, which we 
remain just above, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.49.


   Wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower with KC trade leading as trade fades 
again from the upper end of the range again with negative spillover from row 
crops and outside markets. The Southern Plains will warm up with the more 
significant precipitation remaining to the east, with short-term Black Sea 
dryness while exports slow on logistical challenges. Matif wheat values are 
firmer as well, helping support action. Weekly export inspections were OK at 
536,355 mt. On the chart, KC March has support at the 20-day moving average at 
$8.51, which we are solidly above, with the recent high at $8.95 as resistance 
with the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.97.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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